A Novel Business Cycle Surveillance System Using the Query Logs of Search Engines

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  • Chen and Tsai underscore the importance of business cycle surveillance in public and private organizations because it influences decision-making and problem solving in the work environment. Moreover, business cycle surveillance systems help organizations reduce cost and improve management strategies.
  • One of the problems that business encounters relates to the external environment. It is difficult for businesses to determine how external factors would affect their business. Consequently, some businesses fail, because they cannot cope with rapid changes in the environment, especially those relate to economic, social, and technological chance.
  • New strategies and techniques in management emerged aimed at helping businesses track patterns of profitability. Using web search engines is one of them.
  • Web search engines are useful tools because they show the preferences, interests, and behavior of consumers. Moreover, web search engines help consumers make purchasing decisions.
  • Previous studies covered how web search engines could be used in creating portfolios, which describe or characterize various groups of consumers. Therefore, web search engine results could be used for marketing, as well as research and development efforts.
  • Consequently, marketing and research and development reports based on web search engine results could be used to shape the strategic development, product development, and management in the organization.
  • Chen and Tsai use web search engine results and conduct an experiment to compile the valuable information that characterizes consumers. The results of the experiment were used to develop a business surveillance system, which could be used to predict patterns of profitability and determine the status or condition of existing business cycles. Consequently, it could be used to guide management practices to adjust business cycles according to market patterns and consumer behavior.

Based on existing literature and the results of an experiment with application of business indices and web search engine indices, Chen and Tsai developed a business surveillance system. Public and private organizations could use this system to predict patterns of profitability and evaluate their existing business cycles, based on benchmarks set by current or upcoming trends in the market. The results of the business surveillance system could be used to guide management practices, strategic development, product development, and the movement of the organization’s business cycle. The business surveillance system would be an advantage from the management perspective, especially when it comes to decision-making. Business could track down consumer interests and preferences based on common or popular web search engine results and use that information to decide how to structure the business cycle and value chain in order to target existing, new, and larger markets.

Christensen, Raynor, and Verlinden discussed how businesses could use the Disruptive Technologies Model to predict profitability. The authors cited the case of IBM in order to show how an organization’s success and competitive advantage rely heavily on its ability to adapt and cope with changes. Businesses, nowadays, must learn to determine what ventures are profitable and what markets are ideal for its current business model. Like Christensen, Raynor, and Verlinden’s suggestion of how the Disruptive Technologies Model could be used to predict future trends, Chen and Tsai’s research also suggests another tool that businesses could use to predict future trends and profitable markets.

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